Jun 7, 2017

Currency Markets: Monetary Policy Divergence (EUR/USD)

I think that even if the Federal Reserve hikes again in a couple of weeks they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the Federal Reserve claimed to be data dependent and they hike interest rates despite the fact that the data was much weaker than they thought, I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts. I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress.

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